DIARY: 2021-2030 How Should You Have Answered The Questions On The Home Page?
We watch a few representative investments as the decade proceeds.
TIPS | Long Bond | ||||||||||
VBINX | VFINX | VWELX | FSICX | YAFFX | SAA100 | IVY | AAA | VSMAX | VIPSX | TLT | |
Jan 1 2021 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
2/26/21 | $10,077 | $10,171 | $10,034 | $10,101 | $10,456 | $10,059 | $10,119 | $10,128 | $11,030 | $9,868 | $9,073 |
Jan 1 2022 | |||||||||||
Jan 1 2023 | |||||||||||
Jan 1 2024 | |||||||||||
Jan 1 2025 | |||||||||||
Jan 1 2026 | |||||||||||
Jan 1 2027 | |||||||||||
Jan 1 2028 | |||||||||||
Jan 1 2029 | |||||||||||
Jan 1 2030 |
1/1/2021 Ideas in the air at the beginning of the decade: bonds will do badly making the 60-40 stock/bond portfolio less attractive (see VBINX). Inflation is expected by some to uptick, making most bonds even less profitable. A popular opinion is that the stock market is in a never-ending bull market. But stock price stagnation (<4% annually on average) is also a popular opinion while steep stock market drops (eg 2001, 2008) are not expected by many. Is this the decade where the National Debt is "paid" with a burst of inflation? If US bonds are the bad investment they are expected to be, demand will fall, rates will have to rise, refinancing costs will soar, budget deficit will soars. Attempts to cut non-military budgets throws nation into deep recession, worsening the debt problem. Only higher inflation actually lowers the real value of the national debt. No?